The Invisible Library

I learned via Atrios that Zogby is predicting Kerry over Bush, 311 to 213. This is good news, if true. But it isn’t necessarily. Herein lies the anxiety. The later it gets, the more good news I hear, that Kerry is going to win. But see, the reality is, he needs to win by a wide enough margin to leave no doubt. Because we all know that the Postmodern Republicans will jump on the slightest bit of voter uncertainty if it’s too close. Kerry needs to win by at least a 5 point margin, since the standard Margin Of Error (MOE) is between 2 and 3%. If John Zogby is right, then we have nothing to worry about. Not even Bush could spin a 98 point deficit in his favor. The Fundies may be able to claim the Grand Canyon was made in an afternoon but that doesn’t mean they can jump it.

But if Zogby’s wrong, and say, the Electoral Vote Predictor is right (Kerry 262, Bush 261) then we have another three months of litigious dingbats and chad counting to endure. And I just don’t think I can handle that. After four years of waiting for this day, to have victory snatched away by the Pigfucker and his merry band of cyborgs would put me over the edge. I’d have to flee to Canada, or the UK and live my life as an ex pat librarian, drinking nightly and cursing the Empire.

Updated 11/04: most of the above is now meaningless and probably always was.

You’re worried, I know. You’ve been strung out for the last forty eight hours, alternating between fear that Bush will win (or cheat), and elation that Kerry might actually win this shootin’ match. You had to drink a bottle of wine, just so you could get a few fitful hours of sleep last night and are wondering how much you’ll have to drink tonight as you sit there, glued to CSPAN, with your computer buzzing through the blogs and refreshing the count over at The Electoral Vote Predictor ¹.

I’m here with the good news, people. William Gibson brings to our attention the fact that Existing Polling Methodology is pre-cellular. What this means is, all those phone polls that for the last month have had this race at a dead heat were made on land lines, calling old folks like my Grandma. They never bothered to do a strictly cellular based poll, which would include a large majority of young voters (18-21) who don’t have landlines and probably never will. They are only available by Cell.

Well, John Zogby wised up. He did a cellular based poll and let me tell you folks, it wasn’t even close: Kerry over Bush, 55 to 40%

Add this to the letter that Mr. Gibson posted from a young black man writing to Salon.com and you have a bigger picture of this election . It’s like we’ve been looking at the whole thing through a keyhole, only seeing a narrow view of a much wider scenario. Open the door and walk inside and what we have is a lot more young people and minorities voting this time around. They are concerned about the Draft, the job market, the war, the anti-gay amendment². And they’re turning out to vote in record numbers.

So take heart. This election isn’t the dead heat we’ve been sold. The Republicans are desperate. Their attempts at voter fraud have been clumsy and we saw them coming. So finish your coffee and get to the polls! We have an election to win.

_________

1. As of 9:00 AM EST, it reads Kerry at 298 vs. Bush at 231. Peace.

2. the young’ens especially. They have gay friends and family and don’t pretend that they’re just “bachelors” and “spinsters” who haven’t found the right somebody yet.